Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 216.914732 261.656184 316.341550 389.128487 485.057994 609.494542 7.870996e+02
2025-08-17 159.474559 209.273240 277.501550 381.040635 540.347507 787.671899 1.226796e+03
2025-08-24 127.385014 176.708398 249.704028 371.280364 581.392386 958.240409 1.768567e+03
2025-08-31 106.390391 153.731173 227.953390 360.818986 613.092911 1125.024570 2.439162e+03
2025-09-07 98.760546 148.813501 232.157068 393.409781 733.686310 1533.120435 4.112849e+03
2025-09-14 88.486601 137.437337 222.628050 397.426775 798.188860 1861.360635 6.084917e+03
2025-09-21 81.466032 130.183354 218.600276 410.690098 889.444188 2333.913651 9.640527e+03
2025-09-28 73.888237 120.683224 208.424141 407.892795 940.205619 2734.039791 1.414037e+04
2025-10-05 71.472581 120.110042 215.304650 445.357023 1120.589827 3798.093907 2.872065e+04
2025-10-12 68.548916 118.081966 218.755943 475.816681 1300.535409 5147.601925 6.128857e+04
2025-10-19 65.260908 114.838590 218.965342 498.181743 1470.460889 6790.694520 1.395454e+05
2025-10-26 61.725366 110.604076 216.197203 511.743164 1619.949181 8690.645245 3.456255e+05
2025-11-02 57.691025 105.049068 209.965423 515.277690 1742.178901 10862.402744 1.023123e+06
2025-11-09 53.298011 98.243736 199.755307 504.238928 1797.249092 12730.969966 3.252507e+06
2025-11-16 49.285511 91.811894 189.481756 490.340153 1832.848186 14652.993445 1.490848e+07
2025-11-23 45.693622 85.914630 179.666965 475.398767 1855.888642 16660.271615 1.720315e+08
2025-11-30 45.220407 86.852044 187.263452 522.149194 2265.629901 27628.097760 NaN
2025-12-07 43.035808 83.664101 183.597881 527.941881 2443.321227 36624.994206 NaN
2025-12-14 41.531952 81.882303 183.430613 547.112643 2740.053031 54171.886148 NaN
2025-12-21 39.350653 78.286673 177.739787 543.063626 2869.155620 69630.579122 NaN
2025-12-28 39.163048 79.422514 185.566777 597.545567 3562.660709 146663.204681 NaN
2026-01-04 38.576308 79.518459 190.436834 642.233472 4281.373576 319278.088517 NaN
2026-01-11 37.659943 78.692888 192.428142 675.261417 4976.301432 718120.192410 NaN